Writing

Selected writing.

Public and forthcoming writing on analytics, AI, commercial measurement, and the management choices that determine whether technical systems improve decisions.

Reconciling Top-Down and Bottom-Up Machine-Learning Models in Promotion Response Modelling

A working paper on reconciling planning-level assumptions with model-level promotion response estimates.

SSRN working paper
AI's Quiet Failure

A practitioner article on why technically sound AI recommendations often fail to change business performance when authority, incentives, and workflows do not move with the model.

Forthcoming executive article
The Promotion Lift Trap

A practitioner piece on how weak counterfactuals can turn targeted response into overstated promotion ROI.

Forthcoming practitioner article
Why Digital Marketing Looks Better Than It Is

A practitioner piece on how traceable digital touchpoints can be mistaken for incremental commercial contribution.

Forthcoming practitioner article
Measuring the Unmeasurable: A Unified Model of Commercial Measurement Bias in Targeted Promotions and Digital Attribution

An academic synthesis, now in active development, on the shared measurement problem behind promotion lift, digital attribution, traceability, exposure, and incrementality.

Working paper; SSRN expected soon